SAMAJ WEEKLY UK-
Bal Ram Sampla
Geopolitics
On June 19, 2025, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held their inaugural trilateral meeting in Kunming, Yunnan Province, marking what many media and security analysts view as an escalation in the strategic encirclement of India.
The Multi-Front Threat Emerges
Despite official claims that the trilateral framework is “not directed at any third party,” the first trilateral meeting of China-Pak-Bangladesh in Kunming has increased India’s concerns, being seen as a sign of a new security threat for India. There are warnings that the country must now “prepare for 3.5 front war” as these three nations coordinate their strategic positions.
Recent intelligence reports indicate that China is collecting data from its fighter jets and other weapons used in action by Pakistan, turning the India-Pakistan conflict into a rich intelligence opportunity for China.
This technological transfer and intelligence sharing significantly enhances the combined threat.
Bangladesh: The Unexpected Third Front
The growing closeness between Bangladesh and Pakistan is fueling speculations that Pakistan may be using Bangladesh as a proxy, supplying logistics and ammunition to aid in military maneuvers against India. Reports suggest that Bangladesh has deployed Turkish-made Bayraktar drones, adding a new technological threat.
Water Warfare
In April 2025, India suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 with Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists.This suspension has created ripple effects across regional water security discussions.
Some analysts have expressed concerns that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty “could prompt China to block the Brahmaputra River, which supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water and about 44 percent of its total hydropower potential.” There are growing fear that China may leverage the Brahmaputra river as a strategic tool against India, mirroring the water disputes that have featured featured india-pakistan conflict.
The trilateral format demonstrates China’s ability to create alternative regional arrangements that exclude India, potentially weakening New Delhi’s influence in South Asian affairs. This is a diplomatic win for China.
India’s Response Strategy
India’s strategic planners are now forced to recalibrate their defense posture to address this multi-front challenge. The country’s military doctrine, historically focused primarily on Pakistan while acknowledging the “potential threat from China,” must now account for coordinated action from three directions simultaneously.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already warned Pakistan that New Delhi would target “terrorist hideouts” across the border again if there were new attacks on India, signaling a more aggressive posture in response to these emerging threats.
The success of this trilateral initiative in creating sustained pressure on India will largely depend on the level of operational coordination these three nations can achieve.
For India, the emergence of this trilateral threat requires a fundamental rethinking of its security. The country must now prepare for scenarios that were previously considered unlikely – simultaneous pressure from multiple fronts, coordinated water warfare, and technological cooperation among its adversaries.
The trilateral meeting in Kunming may well be remembered as the moment when India’s strategic thinking shifted from ‘managing bilateral challenges to confronting a coordinated multi-front threat matrix’. How India responds to this challenge will determine not just its regional standing, but its long-term security and strategic autonomy.
References
1. China,Pakistan, Bangladesh hold inaugural trilateral ministerial meet
https://www.orissapost.com/china-pakistan-bangladesh-hold-inaugural-trilateral-ministerial-meet/
2. Pakistan, China and Bangladesh agree on trilateral cooperation
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/06/20/pakistan-china-and-bangladesh-agree-on-trilateral-cooperation/
3. ‘This can happen with India’ China issues warning over brahmaputra in support of Pakistan threatens to block river flow into India northeast over indus water treaty
https://www.india.com/news/world/this-can-happen-with-india-china-issues-warning-over-brahmaputra-in-support-of-pakistan-threatens-to-block-river-flow-into-india-northeast-over-indus-water-treaty-7853086/?utm_source=referral&utm_medium=WA&utm_campaign=social_share
