New Delhi, Out of the 10 seats that went to the polls in Uttar Pradesh in the third phase of Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) runs the risk of losing four of its own seats and may not be able to wrest three from the Samajwadi Party (SP) if the voting patterns of 2014 are replicated this time.
Out of the 10 seats, the BJP had won seven while three went to the SP as these were strongholds of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s clan.
If the votes polled by the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2014 are added (as the two parties this time is contesting in alliance), the BJP seems to have an uphill task in at least four of the seven seats it had won last time.
Even the Congress contesting outside the alliance will not make it easy for the BJP because of the poll arithmetic.
The four seats where BJP appears to be facing tough challenge include Rampur, Sambhal, Moradabad and Aonia.
In Rampur, Neepal Singh had beaten SP, BSP and the Congress in 2014 and got 3,58,616 votes. His nearest rival Naseer Ahmad Khan of the SP got 3,35,181 votes and the BSP’s Akbar Hussain got 81,006 votes.
If BSP and SP votes are added, they surpass the votes polled by the BJP by a fair amount despite the fact that Nawab Kazim Ali Khan of the Congress had got 1,56,466 votes.
This time, all the three parties have tried new candidates. BJP has fielded former SP MP Jaya Prada from Rampur who is facing Azam Khan of the Mahagathbandhan and Sanjay Kapoor of the Congress.
The story is similar in Sambhal, where Satyapal Singh of the BJP had polled 3,60,242 votes and won by a narrow margin. SP’s Shafiq-ur-Rahman Baraq came second with 3,65,068 votes while Aqeel-ur-Rehman Khan of the BSP polled 2,52,640 votes.
The BJP has replaced Satyapal Singh by Parameshvar Lal Saini this time. The Congress has fielded Major Jagat Pal Singh and Shafiq-ur-Rahman Barq is back as the Mahagathbandhan candidate.
In Moradabad, Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar of the BJP had polled 4,85,224 votes and beaten S.T. Hasan of the SP who got 3,97,720 votes. But Haji Md Yaqoob of the BSP also piled up 1,60,945 votes while Begum Noor Bano urf Mehtab got only 19,732 votes.
This time, BJP and SP have re-nominated Sarvesh Kumar and S.T. Hasan, respectively.
BJP’s Dharmendra Kumar had won the Aonia seat by getting 4,09,907 votes. But Kunwar Sarvraj Singh of the SP polled 2,71,478 and the BSP’s Sunita Shakya got 1,90,200 votes. Together, they polled much more than the BJP.
On other seats like Pilibhit, Bareilly and Etah, a combined strength of SP and BSP was not good enough to beat the BJP.
The other seats — Mainpuri, Firozabad and Badaun — saw SP trouncing its opponents. The three seats are Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family bastions.
The break-up
Aonia 2014
Dharmendra Kumar (BJP): 40,9907
Saleem Iqbal Shervani (INC): 93,061
Kunwar Sarvraj Singh (SP): 26,478
Sunita Shakya (BSP): 1,90,200
Contestants in 2019
Dharmendra Kashyap (BJP)
Kunwar Sarwaraj Singh (UPA)
Ruchi Veera (MGB)
Sunil Kumar (Shivpal Yadav’s Progressive Democratic Alliance)
Pilibhit 2014
Maneka Gandhi (BJP): 5,46,934
Anis Ahmad Khan alias Phool Babu (BSP): 1,96,294
Budhsen Verma (SP): 2,39,882
Contestants in 2019
Varun Gandhi (BJP)
Surendra Kumar Gupta (UPA)
Hemraj Verma (MGB)
Mohd. Hanif (PDA)
Bareilly 2014
Santosh Gangwar (BJP): 5,18,258
Ayesha Islam (SP): 2,77,573
Umesh Gautam (BSP): 1,06,049
Contestants in 2019
Santosh Kumar Gangwar (BJP)
Praveen Singh Aaron (UPA)
Bhagwat Saran Gangwar (MGB)
Samar Tahir (PDA)
Mainpuri 2014
Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP): 5,95,918
Shatrugha Singh (BJP): 2,31,252
Dr Sanghamitra Maurya (BSP): 1,42,833
Contestants in 2019
Prem Singh Shakya (BJP)
Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP)
PDA, UPA did not field candidate
Firozabad in 2014
Akshay Yadav (SP): 5,34,583
Atul Chaturvedi (INC): 7,447
Th. Vishwadeep Singh (BSP): 2,28,909
S.P. Singh Baghel (BJP): 4,20,524
Candidates in 2019
Chandra Sen Jadon (BJP)
UPA — No candidate
Akshay Yadav (SP)
Shivpal Singh Yadav (PDA)
Etah 2014
Ku. Devendra Singh Yadav (SP): 2,73,977
Noor Mohammad Khan (BSP): 1,37,127
Rajveer Singh (Raju Bhaiya) (BJP): 4,74,978
Contestants in 2019
Rajveer Singh (BJP)
Suraj Singh (UPA)
Kunwar Devendra Singh Yadav (SP)
Rashmi Yadav (PDA)
Badaun in 2014
Akmal Khan urf Chaman (BSP): 1,56,973
Dharmendra Yadav (SP): 4,98,378
Vagish Pathak (BJP): 3,32,031
Contestants in 2019
Sanghmitra Maurya (BJP)
Saleem Iqbal Sherwani (UPA)
Dharmendra Yadav (MGB)
PDA — No candidate
Rampur in 2014
Neepal Singh (BJP): 3,58,616
Naseer Ahmad Khan (SP): 3,35,181
Akbar Husain (BSP): 81,006
Nawab Kazim Ali Khan (INC): 1,56,466
Contestants in 2019
Jaya Prada (BJP)
Sanjay Kapoor (UPA)
Azam Khan (MGB)
PDA — No candidate
Sambhal 2014
Aqeel-ur-Rehman Khan (BSP): 2,52,640
Acharya Pramod Krishnam (INC): 16,034
Shafiq-ur-Rahman Barq (SP): 3,55,068
Satyapal Singh (BJP): 3,60,242
Contestants in 2019
Parmeshwar Lal Saini (BJP)
Major Jagat Pal Singh (UPA)
Dr. Shafiq-ur-rehman Barq (MGB)
Karan Singh Yadav (PDA)
Moradabad 2014
Begum Noor Bano (INC): 19,732
Haji Mod. Yaqoob (BSP): 1,60,945
Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar (BJP): 4,85,224
Dr. ST Hasan (SP): 2,97,720
Contestants in 2019
Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar (BJP)
Imran Pratapgarhi (INC)
S.T Hasan (MGB)
Nadir Ali Mansoori (PDA)
