Thiruvananthapuram, (Samajweekly) As the poll battle has come to the wire in Kerala, the three political fronts are in a mad rush to garner the minority communities’ votes and whoever gets, it could well have the last laugh.
Kerala goes to the polls on April 26 to elect 20 new Lok Sabha members and the public campaign comes to a close on Wednesday evening.
The minority communities’ votes are pivotal for all the political fronts as the Muslims (around 26 per cent) and the Christians (around 18 per cent) together account for as high as 44 per cent of the 3.30 crore state population.
These votes are crucial not just for the traditional rivals — the CPI-M-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, but also for the BJP-led NDA, as a slight swing to or away from these three fronts could be the key factor.
Traditionally the pattern of voting by these communities has a different style, when it comes to the parliament polls, generally the swing is towards the Congress-led UDF but when it comes to the assembly and local bodies polls, it’s a shade different as local factors besides the candidate matter.
The factors that prevailed in the 2019 polls, appear not to be there this time, as for these two communities this time the Citizen Amendment Act and the Manipur issue weigh heavy and this could well be a dampener for the BJP.
Already the first shot has been fired and contrary to the general perception that the BJP might get a raw deal, a new generation Church- The Believers Church headquartered at Thiruvalla has made its intentions clear and they have decided to go with the BJP.
Likewise, the Syrian Jacobite Church has made its intentions clear and has said its preference would be for the CPI-M-led Left, while the Syrian Orthodox Church has asked its flock to decide.
But the Manipur issue appears to have hurt the Catholic community which accounts for more than 50 per cent of all the Christians and hence that’s not something the BJP-led NDA would be happy with.
Among the Muslim community, the EK Samastha wing which controls over 10,000 madrasas, has a difference of opinion with the Indian Union Muslim League, which is the second biggest ally of the Congress-led UDF and that’s good news for the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).
A political analyst on condition of anonymity said the minority communities’ voting patterns will definitely play a big role this time.
“The very fact that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan all through his statewide tour of the election campaign has used a majority of his time in attacking the Congress and Rahul Gandhi on their silence towards the CAA. He knows a swing towards their candidates will do wonders, but the Congress-led UDF and its leadership are hoping against hope that the Muslim community will not let them down. Likewise, the Manipur issue will certainly be in the minds of all ‘devout’ Christians,” said the analyst.
The figures tell the tale as in the 2019 polls, the BJP managed a mere 15.64 per cent vote share, while the Congress-led UDF secured a vote share of 47.48 per cent winning 19 seats, and the CPI-M-led Left Front got 36.29 per cent votes bagging just one seat.
Now all eyes are on April 26 and the voter turnout and if previous figures of turnout are any indication, then the Congress-led UDF can sit pretty, as any turnout over 75 per cent has favoured them hugely, while if it hovers around the 70 per cent mark, then the Left can smile.
In 2019, the turnout was 77.67 per cent, while in 2004 when the Left swept the polls, leaving the Congress-led UDF with just one seat, the turnout was 71.43 per cent.
