New Delhi, (Samajweekly) An exclusive Exit Poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News has revealed that the Congress is tantalisingly close to retaining Chhattisgarh in the latest round of Assembly elections.
This is in contrast to the previous elections in 2018, when the Congress had ended the 15-year reign of the BJP by sweeping the state, winning 68 out of 90 seats.
According to the latest ABP CVoter Exit Poll conducted with a sample size of 19.171, the Congress is projected to win between 41 and 53 seats. The party is projected to get 43.4 per cent votes, marginally higher than in 2018.
The BJP’s vote share is projected to dramatically increase from 33 per cent in 2018 to 41.2 per cent this time.
However, the big jump in vote share may not help the BJP return to power in Chhattisgarh, as it is projected to win between 36 and 48 seats.
Both the BJP and the Congress are projected to gain in vote share at the cost of smaller parties.
Others had obtained a vote share of 23.9 per cent in 2018, which is projected to come down to 15.4 per cent this time. They are projected to win between 0 and 4 seats this time.
That makes Chattisgarh a straight bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP.
There is a possibility of a twist in the tale, according to deeper analysis of the Exit Poll numbers. According to the poll, there are about 28 seats in the state where the two rivals are neck and neck and the victory margins could be thin.
According to the ABP-CVoter projections, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbent, the BJP could actually recapture the state by winning between 54 and 60 seats. However, if all the marginal seats go pro-incumbent, the Congress will retain power by winning between 56 and 62 seats.
The results of the Assembly elections will be declared on December 3.
