New Delhi, (Samajweekly) The exclusive C-Voter exit poll for Karnataka telecast on ABP News had indicated that the Congress is very close to a simple majority. The exit poll had also indicated that the Congress would cross the majority mark if it wins the marginal seats where the fight is so close that the vote share gap hovers around the 3 petr cent mark between the rival contestants, mostly the BJP.
However, the same set of respondents reflected very different voting intentions when asked about the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. As per the respondents, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is projected to get a vote share of 46 per cent, up 8 per cent from the exit poll vote share for the Assembly elections.
Simultaneously, the Congress is projected to get a vote share of 35 per cent, down 7 per cent from the exit poll numbers for the Assembly elections. The JD(S) vote share is projected to be 12 per cent, down 3 per cent from the latest Assembly polls.
The big lead in vote share means the BJP is projected to win between 20 and 22 seats out of the total 28 Lok Sabha seats on offer in Karnataka. While that is lower than the 26 it had won in the 2019 elections, analysts consider it to be a significant indicator for the 2024 elections.
It has been observed since many years that voters have split preferences and intentions during national and state elections. For instance, about 58 per cent of respondents from Delhi had stated during the 2019 Lok Sabha opinion and exit polls that they will vote for the BJP. About 58 per cent of the same set of respondents had stated they will vote for AAP when Assembly elections were due.
This pattern has been observed in most major states of India, including Kerala that handed a massive victory to Congress-led UDF in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and then gave a resounding victory to the CPM-led LDF in subsequent Assemble elections.
